Research Reveals That Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests that a small group of informed traders, like the accused soldier, significantly influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of participants incur losses. This study, conducted by researchers from London Business School and Yal…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.