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New Study Reveals Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for wagering on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests it could be an extreme example of a small group of informed traders who significantly influence prices on Polymarket. The study, released as a working paper by researchers from London Business School and Yale, examined the core claim of the industry…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Drive Accuracy in Prediction Markets
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may be an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who actually influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of participants lose money around them. The study, conducte…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Contribute to Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may be an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who drive prices on prediction markets like Polymarket, while the majority of traders incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers fr…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for wagering on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may represent an extreme example of a small group of informed traders who significantly influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of traders incur losses. The study, conducted by r…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
New Study Reveals That Only a Small Percentage of Informed Traders Drive the Accuracy of Prediction Markets
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for wagering on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests it could be an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who drive price movements on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of participants incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers from the London Business School and …
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Contribute to Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests that it could be an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who actually influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of traders incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers from London Business School and Yal…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests it could be an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who actually influence prices on Polymarket, while the majority of traders incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers from London Business School and Yale, analyzed 1.72 m…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Research Reveals That Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive the Accuracy of Prediction Markets
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret who was arrested for betting on a classified US raid may be more than just an isolated incident. According to a new study, it may be an example of the small group of informed traders who actually influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of users end up losing money. The study, which analyzed over 1.7 million accounts and $13.7 bill…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret accused of betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may represent an extreme example of a small but influential group of informed traders who significantly impact prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the broader crowd incurs losses. The study, conduct…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret accused of betting on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may be an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who actually influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of participants incur losses. The study, conducted by researche…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.