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Study Reveals That Only a Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret accused of betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests that a small group of informed traders, like the soldier, are the ones actually influencing prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of users incur losses. This study, conducted by researchers from the London Business School and Yale, …
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may represent an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who actually influence prices on Polymarket, while the majority of participants incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers f…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Informed Traders Drive Accuracy in Prediction Markets
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret accused of betting on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research, conducted by Roberto Gómez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, Theis Ingerslev Jensen, and Howard Kung of London Business School and Yale, indicates that a small group of informed traders is responsible for the accuracy of prediction markets, including P…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret accused of betting on a classified US raid has shed light on a more significant issue in prediction markets. According to a new study, this incident may be an extreme example of a broader trend, where a small group of informed traders, like the accused soldier, are actually responsible for moving prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of p…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent study has shed new light on the functioning of prediction markets, suggesting that the accuracy of these markets can be attributed to a small group of informed traders, rather than the collective knowledge of the crowd. The research, which analyzed 1.72 million accounts and $13.76 billion in trading volume on Polymarket, found that a mere 3% of traders are responsible for the majority of…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Small Group of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent study has shed new light on the functioning of prediction markets, suggesting that the accuracy of these markets can be attributed to a small group of informed traders, rather than the collective knowledge of the crowd. This finding challenges the long-held notion that the 'wisdom of the crowd' is the primary driver of market accuracy. The research, which analyzed over 1.72 million accou…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals That Only a Small Percentage of Traders Contribute to Prediction Markets' Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified U.S. raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that the soldier's actions may be an extreme example of a small group of informed traders who drive prices on prediction markets, while the majority of participants incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers from Lond…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Traders Contribute to Prediction Markets' Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret's alleged betting on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, as a new study suggests it could be an extreme example of the small group of informed traders who drive prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of participants incur losses. The study, conducted by researchers from London Business School and Yale, analyzed 1.72…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Small Percentage of Informed Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret arrested for betting on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may represent an extreme example of a small group of informed traders who drive price movements on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of participants incur losses. The study, conducted by resear…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.
Markets
Study Reveals Only a Tiny Fraction of Traders Drive Prediction Market Accuracy
A recent scandal involving a Green Beret accused of betting on a classified US raid may be more than an isolated incident, according to a new study. The research suggests that this individual may represent an extreme example of a small group of informed traders who significantly influence prices on platforms like Polymarket, while the majority of participants incur losses. The study, conducted by…
April 26, 2026, 1:47 p.m.