With the US election just a month away, Kalshi has resumed listing its congressional contracts after an appeals court lifted its order to pause the activity. The company is also set to launch a presidential contract, as indicated by a recent regulatory filing.
Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx is preparing to introduce its own congressional and presidential markets. This development comes after the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia denied the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's motion to halt the contracts pending appeal.
The court ruled that the CFTC failed to demonstrate that it or the public would suffer irreparable harm without a stay. As a result, Kalshi has self-certified a contract related to the presidential election with the CFTC. The contract is expected to launch on Thursday afternoon, US time. On the relaunched contract for the Senate, shares in the Republicans were trading at 75 cents, indicating a 75% chance of the GOP taking control of the chamber.
A separate contract for the House of Representatives gives a 63% chance of the Democrats regaining control and 37% for the Republicans retaining it. Kalshi's contracts had previously been paused after the CFTC denied its application, citing concerns that they constituted gaming and would be contrary to the public interest. However, the company sued the CFTC and won in a lower court, allowing it to list the contracts.
While Kalshi has been fighting the agency in court, its crypto-powered rival Polymarket has seen record volumes, with over $1 billion staked on its presidential contract. Kalshi's relaunched congressional contracts saw modest volumes, with 45,000 contracts traded for the Senate and $25,000 for the House. The CFTC has been considering a proposed rule to ban election betting at federally regulated futures exchanges but has not finalized it. The court suggested that rulemaking is the way for the agency to stop election betting at regulated exchanges.