Millions Lost by Polymarket Trader After Trump Bet Success

A Polymarket user, 'zxgngl', made $11.4 million betting on Donald Trump's return to the White House but lost $3.4 million on a Mike Tyson boxing match. The market gave Jake Paul a 62% chance of winning, with Tyson at 29%. The fight's outcome was largely predictable, with commentators stating it was a sad spectacle. A separate Polymarket contract gives only a 1% chance of evidence emerging to suggest the fight was rigged. The traders who lost money on the fight made various bets on each presidential candidate, with no clear correlation between Trump and Tyson supporters. Polymarket bettors also doubt Matt Gaetz's confirmation as Attorney General, giving it a 21% chance, citing his controversial reputation and past allegations. Gaetz has been a polarizing figure in Congress, known for his publicity stunts and comments on sensitive topics. Despite facing allegations of misconduct, Gaetz has also done notable work in restricting Congress members from owning and trading individual stocks. To be confirmed, he needs the support of 50 out of 53 Republicans in the Senate, which seems unlikely given his reputation. Meanwhile, at Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market, traders give Gaetz slightly better odds at 34%. Looking ahead to 2024, Polymarket bettors believe there's only a 34% chance that the year will be better than 2023, based on the Ipsos 'Me Personally' tracker, which polls Americans on their year. The economy is a mixed bag, with some indicators signaling recession risk and economic uncertainty, while others show growth and increased investments. The World Happiness Report gives a mixed grade, with North Americans not significantly happier in 2024 than in 2023, and a decline in happiness among young people.