Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin's Breakthrough Beyond $100,000

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless specified) The anticipation is over, as Bitcoin has successfully surpassed the $100,000 mark, fueled by various factors including the appointment of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as the SEC leader by President-elect Donald Trump. The majority of analysts are optimistic, forecasting further growth towards $120,000 and beyond. This outlook is supported by Newton's first law, which states that an object in motion will maintain its velocity and direction unless affected by an external force. The broader market is expected to benefit from Bitcoin's achievement, especially as the six-digit price point may be too high for many retail investors, prompting them to explore alternative cryptocurrencies. In particular, Ether is likely to benefit due to the narrowing spread between the Ethereum staking yield and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which has dropped to 4.2% from 4.5% over the past two weeks. However, a recent movement of 11,753 ETH to exchanges by a whale address has increased price volatility risks. Additionally, the Bitcoin layer-2 network Stacks' STX token is gaining significant attention on social media, with some observers referring to it as a "de facto BTC staking provider" due to its SEC compliance. STX has seen a 56% surge this quarter, although it remains below its record high of $3.84 at $2.80. In traditional markets, the rise of BTC has lifted the spirits of crypto-related equities, with MicroStrategy, a self-described bitcoin development company, up over 6% in pre-market trading. Other companies, such as Semler Scientific and MARA Holdings, have also seen gains of over 7% and 6%, respectively. However, several external factors may hinder BTC's momentum. "Risks are centered around escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with significant shifts in interest rate expectations from the Fed," according to Jonathan de Wet, CIO of trading firm Zerocap. He also warned that the Fed's potential hawkish turn next year may negatively impact BTC's growth. Sergei Gorev, head of risk at YouHodler, noted that risks could emerge from an "overheated" S&P 500. "While the price increase may continue, it is unlikely to be substantial," he said. Many technical indicators suggest a potential correction, prompting algorithmic traders to seek entry points for short positions to address divergences on the charts. Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, and several others believe the crypto market itself appears overheated and is at risk of correction. "The Fear and Greed Index has climbed above 80, signaling extreme greed among investors. Smaller-cap assets are experiencing explosive gains, drawing in retail participants eager to capitalize on the bull run. While this strategy could be lucrative, it carries significant risks in such unpredictable conditions," Fournier told CoinDesk. Therefore, it is essential to remain vigilant. Key Events to Watch Token Events Conferences Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa A widely shared community note on X today reads, "Hailey is lying and will likely have to 'talk tuah' to the judge about this." Viral sensation Haliey Welch launched a token on Solana late Wednesday, backed by a management team, a foundation in the Cayman Islands, and a SAFT agreement with private investors who claimed to ensure the longevity of HAWK, a token themed after Welch's popular "hawk tuah" catchphrase. The token initially saw its market cap soar to $490 million before dramatically crashing to less than $40 million within 20 minutes. The wild price action drew parallels to a classic "rug pull," or a token that benefits early buyers by pumping several multiples after issuance only to drop more than 90% in the hours or days afterward. On-chain analysts such as Bubblemaps allege that over 96% of HAWK tokens were held in a single cluster, or a collection of related wallets, that sold tokens when prices rose. Welch and her team have responded to some of these allegations, denying that insiders sold tokens at launch and claiming that the initial high trading fees were implemented to prevent snipers, or bots that purchase large amounts of a token after issuances to corner supply. Several messages sent to Welch's team to shed light on the allegations were unanswered during Asian hours. Derivatives Positioning Market Movements Bitcoin Statistics Basket Performance Technical Analysis TradFi Assets ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether