Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin's Bullish Trend and the Importance of Perspective

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The cryptocurrency market is poised to sustain its upward momentum, sparked by the recent US CPI report that aligned with expectations and paved the way for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 mark, while ether is once again approaching $4,000. Several tokens, including AAVE and LINK, have seen a 10% increase in value due to accumulation by wallets linked to World Liberty Financial, a project backed by the family of President-elect Donald Trump. A crucial question now is whether bitcoin's rally will be enduring. This could be the case, given the consistent price premium of bitcoin on Coinbase compared to global exchanges, as well as healthier leverage levels in the broader market. However, if the producer price index indicates higher inflation, it may limit the upside. "Any upside surprise could have a minor positive impact on the dollar, especially considering next Friday's release of the core PCE deflator," according to ING. For insight into whether the $100,000 mark represents a significant peak, the advice is straightforward: step back and assess the bigger picture. At $100,000, the annualized three-month bitcoin futures basis on major exchanges is around 15%, significantly lower than the 30%+ witnessed during the 2021 bull market. This suggests that the gain is driven by genuine buying in the spot market, which is more sustainable than speculative, leverage-led bull runs. Taking a broader view also brings into focus the second half of 2021, when teenagers worldwide traded tokens like DOT, SOL, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies without understanding their use cases. It was also the period when the bull market reached its peak. Fast forward to the present, and the mainstream is quiet on crypto. As Leonardo DiCaprio said in The Wolf of Wall Street, "By the time you read about it in The Wall Street Journal, it's already too late." Furthermore, the $100,000 milestone is marked by increased institutional participation and active lobbying by the crypto community for a favorable regulatory environment. Regarding the continuation of the bull market, ether appears poised to move above $5,000, driven by booming on-chain activity that reduces the token's supply in the market, according to CryptoQuant. "Based on ETH's realized price, the current upper limit for ETH's price stands around $5.2k," the firm told CoinDesk. The bullish outlook for ether is generally seen as positive news for other altcoins, although Delphi Digital notes that token supply is "too high" due to projects like pump.fun, resulting in a demand-supply imbalance that makes finding alpha more challenging in the altcoin sector. Remain vigilant. Key Events to Watch Token Events Conferences Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa An AI agent token modeled after venture fund a16z has surpassed sector leader goat (GOAT) to become the most valued in its category. Ai16z, a fund based on AI-driven trading signals, has crossed an $850 million market capitalization to overtake GOAT, which initiated the AI agents sector in October. Holders of AI16Z tokens propose ideas to "AI Marc," an AI agent inspired by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) partner Marc Andreessen, to influence investment decisions. The fund has accumulated over $10 million from 30,000 unique partners in just over a month since its launch. The AI16Z price has surged 77% in the past seven days and more than tripled in the past 14 days, according to CoinGecko data. This outpaces GOAT and other AI agent tokens that function primarily as memes or online chatbots. This development showcases the market's evolving preference for projects offering entertainment value and tangible utility, where technical projects masquerading as memes may attract more demand in the coming months. "$ai16z flipping $goat is a significant signal for the AI agent sector," crypto trader @Defi0xJeff wrote in an X post. "It demonstrates how the new generation of agents is progressing at a much faster pace than the old guard. This is bullish not just for $ai16z but for the entire ecosystem." Derivatives Positioning Market Movements Bitcoin Stats Basket Performance Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether