Uncovering Key On-Chain Metrics: Insights into SOL, ETH, and Other Chains in 2025

The Web3 ecosystem is overwhelmed by a multitude of metrics, many of which fail to provide a clear picture of what truly matters: the depth and quality of user engagement and the potential for organic, long-term growth. As the industry evolves beyond the hype phase, relying on data-driven signals of success is no longer a choice, but a necessity. Fortunately, the tools to cut through the noise and identify thriving chains poised for long-term growth already exist. By aggregating multiple on-chain metrics into a comprehensive 'health index' score, we can assess the quality of user engagement and identify chains that are truly flourishing. As 2024 comes to a close, let's delve into the insights these signals offer about the leading chains and what we can expect in 2025. Assessing user quality requires a holistic approach, considering not just isolated actions, but the context and diversity of user behaviors. A promising method involves categorizing user behaviors into core categories and then weighing and combining these metrics using a Bayesian model to generate a dynamic, top-line score. This approach incorporates both prior knowledge and new evidence, providing a more accurate and actionable understanding of user activity. The data from 2024 offers a fresh perspective on each chain's user activity. Notably, Solana attracted a significant share of high-quality users between February and mid-March but has since seen a decline in engagement quality. This downturn coincided with SOL's first price and trading volume spike of 2024 and has continued through the current memecoin trend. In contrast, Ethereum's low and stable user score throughout the first half of 2024 suggests that this year's bullish developments did not lead to broader ecosystem participation. Axelar, on the other hand, had the most active users across a broad range of on-chain activities relative to its total user base, presenting an intriguing signal for further examination. The key takeaway is not to compare these scores directly across chains, as each score is proportional to the user quality of its corresponding chain. Instead, these scores are most valuable when tracking changes in the quality of a chain's overall user activity over time. Looking ahead to 2025, each chain's user quality track record offers insights into its potential trajectory. Solana faces the challenge of retaining its casual user base and expanding their on-chain interactions. Axelar must upscale its ecosystem without diluting the quality of its user base, potentially through strategic partnerships and more user-friendly onramps. Ethereum's fragmentation may lead to mainnet activity consolidating around core features like protocol staking and governance, which could be penalized by scoring systems that reward diverse engagement. This underscores the importance of defining what success means for each chain and using a scoring system that captures the corresponding user actions. Ultimately, the winners in Web3 will be those who adopt multivariate methods to measure and act on user quality, driving the industry towards data-backed strategies that unlock its full potential in 2025 and beyond.