Crypto Daybook Americas: A Familiar Refrain in 2025

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise specified) The beginning of 2025 echoes a familiar melody, not just in numbers - Bitcoin's 8% rebound from late December - but also in the news flow, which bears a striking resemblance to previous trends. A significant note comes from JPMorgan, which suggests that the market forces driving bitcoin and gold to record highs last year are still prevalent. "The debasement trade is here to stay, with gold and Bitcoin becoming increasingly crucial components of investors' portfolios," the investment bank noted. The debasement trade refers to a strategy where investors purchase assets that safeguard against declines in fiat currencies and government bonds due to inflation and policy shifts. Last year, the debasement play propelled bitcoin above $100,000 - a figure it is approaching once again - and gold over $2,600. The rallies were fueled by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation concerns, debt debasement in advanced economies, fears of fiat currency devaluation in emerging markets, and a shift away from the US dollar. Coupled with President-elect Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance, this led to a record $78 billion in net inflows into the digital assets market, according to JPMorgan. However, a discordant note arises from elevated bond yields and a strong dollar driven by economic optimism and declining Fed rate-cut bets, which could limit upside potential in the short term. This Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will provide a critical test for the hawkish Fed narrative, with expectations for 154,000 job additions in December. The developments surrounding BTC-holder MicroStrategy (MSTR) warrant attention, particularly the social media buzz about brokers reducing their exposure to the company. This reduction comes alongside significant increases in margin requirements, raising concerns about potential volatility. Meanwhile, crypto economist Ben Lilly suggests that ether's price has been suppressed by the growing number of coins locked up in the DeFi protocol Ethena, which shorts ETH futures as part of a delta-neutral hedge strategy to maintain the $1 peg of its stablecoin, USDe. ETH has jumped 10% in the first six days of the year but remains well below its record high. "This suggests a shift in the market toward delta-neutral exposure on ETH instead of seeking upside by holding it as collateral. Thus, the ETH price is likely to be muted on the upside because of Ethena," Lilly said on X. Ethena has announced plans to launch iUSDe, a version designed for institutional investors seeking exposure to yield-bearing USDe without direct token interaction. Meanwhile, the leading on-chain perp DEX exchange, Hyperliquid, has listed SOLV, the native token of the Bitcoin staking protocol Solv Protocol, and whispers are circulating about whales looking to buy up the HYPE token. Stay alert. Key Events to Watch Token Events Conferences Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa, the parody token SPX has jumped another 17% in the past 24 hours to reach a $1.5 billion market capitalization, keeping a rally from last week going even as the broader market remains fairly steady. The token started as a satire on the S&P 500 equity index and has since captured a dedicated community that hopes to one day flip the capitalization of the entire US stock market, which was valued at just over $44 trillion as of Monday. A manifesto on the SPX6900 site speaks to a generation facing economic challenges, positioning the token as a "reset" for the stock market. The community's rallying cry, "stop trading and start believing in something," has fostered a strong, belief-driven following. This slogan encourages long-term holding over short-term trading, fostering a community of "diamond-handed" believers. This culture prioritizes faith in the project's potential over immediate financial gains. Derivatives Positioning Market Movements Bitcoin Stats Basket Performance Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether