Americas Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin's Recovery Faces Key Employment Report Challenge

By Omkar Godbole (Times are in ET unless otherwise specified) The cryptocurrency market has regained some stability, with bitcoin rebounding to nearly $95,000 as order books indicate the presence of buyers looking for bargains. Late on Wednesday, prices tested the long-standing support zone of $90,000-$93,000, which has successfully halted downward movements at least six times since the second half of November. This recent bounce will face a test with Friday's US non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show the addition of 164,000 jobs in December, following November's gain of 227,000, according to FXStreet. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at November's pace of 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are projected to slow slightly to 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.4%. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could exacerbate existing concerns about the Fed's hawkish stance, further increasing inflation-adjusted bond yields. These yields have been rising due to inflation concerns, complicating the outlook for risk assets. The inflation fears and rate volatility likely contributed to bitcoin's rapid decline from $102,000 to $93,000 over the past four days. The pervasiveness of Fed-led pessimism means any sign of weakness in the payroll figures will likely trigger sharp market reactions, reviving the case for Fed rate cuts and shifting sentiment significantly in favor of risk assets. If the data misses estimates by a wide margin, bitcoin could easily make another attempt at $100,000, provided the US government, which holds approximately $18.50 billion worth of bitcoin, refrains from flooding the market with sell offers. Remain vigilant. Key Events to Watch Upcoming Conferences: Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa Derivatives Market Positioning Market Trends: Bitcoin Statistics: Technical Analysis Crypto Stocks ETF Trends US exchanges were closed on January 9 in observance of a national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, who passed away on December 29, 2024. The ETF data below is from January 8 and remains unchanged. Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Spot Ethereum ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Market Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether