Crypto Market Outlook: Americas Await Progress on U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Amid Somber Sentiment

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise stated) The cryptocurrency market has adopted a cautious tone, with major digital assets such as bitcoin, ether, solana, Binance coin, and chainlink experiencing declines of up to 3%, due to frustration over the slow development of a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve and indications of tightening dollar liquidity. Macro trader and author of the Fidenza Macro newsletter, Geo Chen, suggests that the market has been propped up by hopes of intervention from Trump to bolster the market, but this is unlikely to happen soon. As a result, the market is susceptible to risk aversion driven by ongoing tariff discussions. Chen notes, "The crypto market will likely be impacted by the impending risk-off volatility, with many coins potentially losing 50% or more of their value from their January highs. I have placed limit orders to buy certain coins, such as SOL, at less than half price." Regarding SOL, Amberdata's options block flow tracker has identified a significant bear put spread involving a long position in the $200 put and a short position in the $120 put, both set to expire on February 28. This strategy bets on a decline to at least $120 by the end of the month, reflecting a growing pessimistic outlook. Sentiment remains bearish for ether as well, with ETH having already fallen 15% this month and reaching its lowest point in four years against bitcoin. Asymmetric founder and CEO Joe McCann points out, "Ethereum's fundamental positioning has weakened, with Solana's ecosystem expanding rapidly and offering higher throughput and stronger performance, making Ethereum's historical valuation premium harder to justify." Ethereum's layer-2 scaling solutions, including Optimism, Arbitrum, and Polygon, have all declined by over 50% this year, McCann notes. "This signals broader struggles, as these L2s were expected to drive ETH adoption and usage, yet they are failing to generate sustained momentum." On the macro front, investors are shifting their focus towards gold and U.S. Treasury notes amid the threat of a potential trade war, driving gold to a new high of $2,877 per ounce, representing a 10% gain for the year. Historically, a heightened preference for gold has not been favorable for bitcoin. Furthermore, rising yields on the 10-year Japanese government bond have reached their highest levels since April 2011. The upcoming U.S. ADP employment report may also introduce additional volatility into the market, making it essential to remain alert. Key Events to Watch Upcoming Conferences: Token Talk by Francisco Rodrigues Derivatives Positioning Market Trends: Bitcoin Statistics: Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs: Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Market Movements Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether