Americas Crypto Daybook: Trump's Reserve Speculation Grows as Bitcoin Eyes $95,000 Rebound

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless stated otherwise) The cryptocurrency market has shown signs of stabilization following comments from Commerce Minister Howard Lutnick, suggesting that President Donald Trump may announce a plan for tariff relief on Canadian and Mexican imports covered by NAFTA on Wednesday. This development has contributed to a bounce in BTC, which has neared $90,000, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen to $2.9 trillion. Further recovery is possible as recent trade war concerns and market volatility have renewed speculation about Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in at least three rate cuts for this year, while the 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to 4.15%, down from 4.80% at the time of Trump's inauguration. Additionally, Germany's decision to abandon its fiscal constraints has led to a surge in bond yields, prompting a sell-off in the dollar index that could encourage risk-taking in the market. As a result, there is a possibility that bitcoin may reach its weekend high of $95,000, especially since technical charts indicate signs of seller exhaustion. However, growing concerns about economic growth could limit these gains. Just two days ago, the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast turned negative at -2.8%, raising fears of stagflation, as noted by Singapore-based QCP Capital. The firm emphasized the importance of monitoring corporate yield spreads, including high-yield and investment-grade bonds, in relation to U.S. Treasury yields for signs of market stress. "While this isn't currently signaling panic, it's a trend worth monitoring closely," QCP said in a Telegram broadcast. An important consideration is how much of the decline in the 10-year yield and the weakness in the dollar can be attributed to traders adjusting their expectations about U.S. economic exceptionalism, which was largely based on the Biden era's fiscal splurge. Given the rise of ETFs and Trump's pro-crypto stance, bitcoin has become more closely tied to the U.S. market, and a shift in the U.S. exceptionalism narrative could lead to increased BTC volatility. JPMorgan, however, forecasts a strengthening of the U.S. exceptionalism narrative under Trump's presidency. All of this means that Wednesday's U.S. ISM non-manufacturing (services) PMI and Friday's nonfarm payrolls could significantly impact the cryptocurrency markets. There are also rumors that President Trump will unveil the crypto reserve strategy at the White House Crypto Summit this Friday. With Trump having made significant promises, the markets will be watching closely to see if he delivers; otherwise, there could be further turmoil ahead. Stay alert! Key Events to Watch Upcoming Token Events Conferences Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa Derivatives Positioning Market Trends: Bitcoin Statistics: Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs: Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Market Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether