US Crypto Market Braces for Trump's Pivotal Summit Amidst Ongoing Volatility

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless specified otherwise) Following a 48-hour period of relative stability in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets, key volatility indicators remain high, prompting caution among bulls anticipating a steady upward trend. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, briefly surpassed $92,700, extending its recovery from Tuesday's low of $81,500. Meanwhile, tokens such as MOVE, CRO, ONDO, and Render saw gains ranging from 10% to 17% at the time of writing. Notably, AI, gaming, and Layer 2 coins have emerged as the top-performing crypto sub-sectors over the past 24 hours. The recent upswing can be attributed to speculation surrounding President Donald Trump's potential announcement of a US strategic bitcoin reserve during Friday's White House crypto summit. Additionally, hopes that Trump's tariffs may not be long-lasting have contributed to improved risk sentiment on Wall Street, while fiscal stimulus from Germany and China has supported Asian and European equities. However, volatility indices have yet to exhibit a significant decline. As of press time, the BVIV index, which measures expected 30-day price turbulence, remained just five points below Tuesday's high of 66% and well above the February low of 49.6%. This suggests that traders may view Friday's crypto summit as a critical moment for the cryptocurrency market, with the President expected to deliver on his promises. In traditional markets, the VIX fear gauge held steady at 23.65 on Wednesday, its highest level since mid-December, according to data from TradingView. The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in US Treasury notes, remained elevated at 104, its highest level since November. The elevated bond volatility is particularly concerning, as it can lead to financial tightening and negatively impact risk assets. Nevertheless, a weaker dollar appears to be offsetting this effect for now. The persistence of high volatility indices in traditional markets raises questions about the underlying concerns driving market sentiment. Is the market's anxiety solely related to tariffs, or are there deeper worries about a significant economic slowdown driven by factors such as potential fiscal consolidation? The yield curve has inverted once again, with the spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill turning negative, suggesting a potential recession. According to Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, this is 'generally not a good sign.' Earlier this week, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicated a nearly 3% contraction in US GDP for the first quarter. The model is due for an update today, and recession fears may intensify if no improvement is seen, potentially pressuring risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Acheson summarized the situation: 'We are still navigating the conflict between narratives – on one hand, risk-off sentiment driven by macro uncertainty could keep BTC and other crypto assets depressed for a while. On the other hand, the “safe haven” narrative is gaining strength, as positive news from the White House highlights the remarkable shift in official support.' Remain vigilant. Key Events to Watch: Token Events Conferences Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa Derivatives Positioning Market Movements: Bitcoin Statistics: Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs: Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether