Americas Crypto Daybook: Bitcoin Plunge Intensifies Amid Escalating US-China Trade Tensions

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise specified) The cryptocurrency market has experienced a downturn over the past 24 hours, with prices declining across the board, as a result of a broader risk asset sell-off triggered by the escalating US-China trade war. The White House has announced that China will face a potential 245% tariff on imports and has imposed new restrictions on chip exports to the country. This has led to a decline of over 2.2% in the value of Bitcoin, while the broader market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 index, has dropped by 3.75%. Nasdaq 100 futures have also fallen, losing over 1%, and S&P 500 futures have decreased by 0.65%. Although Bitcoin has shown notable stability amidst the escalating trade war, some indicators suggest that the bull run may have come to an end. On March 9, the largest cryptocurrency fell below its 200-day simple moving average, indicating the start of a bear market cycle, according to Coinbase Institutional. Furthermore, the Z-Score, a risk-adjusted performance metric, shows that the bull cycle ended in late February, with subsequent activity being neutral, as stated by David Duong, Coinbase Institutional's global head of research. However, the resilience of cryptocurrency prices is seen as a positive sign for the market, as it allows traders to consider using premium to hedge, supporting the case for allocating to spot, according to Jake O., an OTC trader at crypto market maker Wintermute. In response to the current market conditions, several prime brokers have adjusted their short-term models from underweight to neutral on risk assets, anticipating that the next move will be driven by 'real' data. This data is expected to be released soon, with the US Census Bureau set to release March retail sales data, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook. The US Department of Labor will also release unemployment insurance data, and the Census Bureau will release residential construction data, while the ECB is expected to cut interest rates. The uncertainty in risk assets has benefited gold, with the precious metal rising by around 26.5% year-to-date to above $3,300 per troy ounce, in contrast to the 9% drop in the US Dollar Index. It is essential to remain alert to these market developments. Key Events to Watch: Token Events: Conferences: Token Talk by Shaurya Malwa Derivatives Positioning: Market Movements: Bitcoin Statistics: Technical Analysis: Crypto Equities: ETF Flows: Spot BTC ETFs: Spot ETH ETFs: Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows: Chart of the Day: While You Were Sleeping: In the Ether