Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin Regains Momentum as Stocks and Bonds Decline, Gold Reaches New Heights

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless otherwise specified) A few quotes encapsulate the current market volatility. The traditional 60/40 portfolio, comprising 60% stocks and 40% bonds, has long been considered a staple of balanced investing. This allocation typically provided a safety net during downturns through bonds, while stocks drove growth during economic expansions. This dynamic was evident during crises like 2008 and 2020, when the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) surged amid global uncertainty. However, this trend has been reversed. With ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and slowing growth, Treasury yields have risen, and bond prices have fallen. The TLT has dropped by approximately 50% from its 2020 highs. The stock side of the portfolio is also struggling, caught in a broader "Sell America" trade. Even the US dollar, which typically strengthens in risk-averse environments, is weakening as capital flows shift towards the yen and euro. In this new market regime, alternative assets are gaining prominence. Gold has reached a record high of $3,500 per ounce, solidifying its role as a safe-haven asset. To put its rapid ascent into perspective: the precious metal has added around $6 trillion in market capitalization this year, triple the market capitalization of bitcoin at its all-time high. Gold ETF inflows, measured over a 90-day rolling period, are approaching 9 million ounces, the largest surge since 2022 and among the largest in the past decade. Although lagging behind gold, bitcoin is also reasserting its position. It has reached new highs in terms of market dominance within the crypto market and is starting to diverge from US tech stocks. It is increasingly behaving like an uncorrelated asset, making it a valuable addition to a diversified portfolio. This Friday, $6.7 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire, including $330 million in call options at the $100,000 strike price, potentially setting the stage for a volatile final week of April. Remain vigilant. Key Events to Watch Upcoming Conferences: Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa Derivatives Positioning Market Trends: Bitcoin Statistics: Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs: Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether