Bitcoin Price Turns Positive for the Year as Tensions Rise

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The price of Bitcoin (BTC) saw minimal change on Monday, with a gain of less than 1%, as renewed trade tensions and concerns over geopolitical instability, including the India-Pakistan conflict, continued to spread. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency experienced a 0.75% increase, thereby turning positive for the year. This shift has led to Bitcoin decoupling from traditional risk assets, as investors begin to question the long-term durability of the US's role as a global financial anchor. The broader market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, rose by 2.2%. US stock-index futures are indicating a slight decline, while gold prices fell by over 1%, as investors likely took profits from the precious metal's 25% year-to-date rally. The equities market experienced a sell-off following China's denial of talks with the US to reach a tariff deal. According to Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, "Bitcoin is behaving less like a liquid, leveraged version of US equity beta and more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is." Although Bitcoin's long-term correlation with US equities remains high, its short-term price action suggests a market that is starting to view BTC as a non-sovereign safe haven, rather than a tech stock proxy, as per NYDIG's report. Data from options and futures suggests that Bitcoin's rally, which saw it rise 9% last week, is still in its early stages. Funding rates for offshore perpetual swaps have only recently turned positive, and call overwriting remains more popular than aggressive bullish positioning. Bitcoin's appeal as a politically neutral asset appears to be growing. Since President Donald Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day," Bitcoin has outperformed US Treasuries, the Swiss franc, and gold. The broader backdrop remains volatile, with measures of equity (VIX), bond (MOVE), and currency (CVIX) volatility having jumped in recent weeks. Although they are expected to recede slightly, the outlook is for them to remain elevated for the foreseeable future, according to the note. Despite Bitcoin's growing appeal, macro and geopolitical events remain the primary drivers of flow, according to Jake O., an OTC trader at Wintermute, who noted that bitcoin call calendar spreads targeting $110,000 in June remain the preferred structure for those seeking topside. This week, investors will see a significant influx of major corporate earnings reports, as well as the latest consumer income and expenditure report and April's nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The data could provide further insights into a potential earlier-than-expected interest-rate cut, which Trump has been advocating for. Key Events to Watch Token Events Conferences CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes. Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa Derivatives Positioning Market Movements: Bitcoin Stats: Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs: Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether