Crypto Markets Brace for Breakout as Jobs Report and Fed Decision Loom

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) Investor sentiment is turning bullish ahead of the upcoming jobs report, with bitcoin (BTC) approaching $97,000 as stocks extend their winning streak to eight consecutive days. The S&P 500 has achieved its longest rally since August, driven by growing optimism about easing trade tensions between the US and China. However, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index has seen minimal change over the past 24 hours, reflecting the economic strain caused by the trade war. Despite this, traders are now betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times this year, which is one more cut than previously anticipated before the tariffs were announced. Nevertheless, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) measure of inflation exceeded forecasts, limiting the central bank's ability to ease monetary policy, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. Today's payroll data is a crucial factor in the equation, he noted. Butterfill stated, "When the Fed eventually decides to cut rates, it is likely to do so in a forceful manner, reacting to a significant deterioration in economic conditions rather than being proactive. Such a drastic policy shift could trigger a substantial breakout rally in bitcoin, as investors seek alternative stores of value amid aggressive monetary easing." Historically, bitcoin has performed well in May, with an average gain of 7.52% since 2013, according to CoinGlass data. Similarly, ether (ETH), which has underperformed BTC, has seen an average gain of 27.3% in May since 2016, making it the best-performing month for the Ethereum blockchain's token. Vijay Chetty, CEO of Eclipse, observed, "Investor confidence is gradually returning to the crypto market after a volatile start to the year, with April seeing a rebound in major cryptocurrencies as macro fears driven by tariffs eased." Chetty added that growing regulatory clarity is an underappreciated catalyst that will pave the way for broader institutional use cases. Stay alert! Key Events to Watch Upcoming Token Events Conferences CoinDesk's Consensus is scheduled to take place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use the code DAYBOOK to receive a 15% discount on passes. Market Insights By Shaurya Malwa Derivatives Positioning Market Trends Bitcoin Statistics Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs: Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether