Crypto Market Outlook for the Americas: Tariff Uncertainty and Surging BTC ETF Volumes

By Omkar Godbole (all times ET unless otherwise stated) The latest developments in the trade war, marked by a significant escalation in tariffs, have led to widespread risk aversion in global markets. This follows President Trump's announcement on Friday that U.S. tariffs on imported aluminum and steel will increase from 25% to 50% on June 4. Bitcoin's price has fluctuated between $103,000 and $106,000, with the broader cryptocurrency market showing little movement. Notably, BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) experienced an outflow of $430 million, ending a prolonged period of inflows. According to Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital, "tariff tensions are likely to dominate the macro narrative through June, with key policy deadlines only approaching on July 8. In the absence of new catalysts, BTC may remain rangebound, with the $100k and $110k levels being crucial to watch due to their status as strikes with the highest month-end open interest." The significance of ETFs in the market is growing. Data from FalconX's David Lawant reveals that the cumulative trading volume of the 11 spot BTC ETFs listed in the U.S. now exceeds 40% of the spot volume. This supports the hypothesis that "Bitcoin ETFs are the new marginal buyer," according to Bitwise's Head of Research - Europe, Andre Dragosch. On-chain data from Glassnode indicates a decline in momentum buyers alongside a sharp increase in profit takers last week. "This trend often appears near local tops, as traders begin to lock in gains rather than build exposure," Glassnode noted. High-stakes crypto trader James Wynn has opened a new BTC long trade with 40x leverage and a liquidation price of $104,580, according to blockchain analyst Lookonchain. In other news, Japan's Metaplanet, often referred to as the "MicroStrategy" of Japan, has announced the purchase of an additional 1,088 BTC, while billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk has unveiled a new XChat with Bitcoin-like encryption. Binance founder CZ suggested on X that now may be an opportune time to develop a dark pool-style perpetual-focused decentralized exchange, citing the potential for real-time order visibility to lead to MEV attacks and malicious liquidations. In traditional markets, gold appears to be breaking out of its recent consolidation, hinting at the next leg higher, as Bank of America and Morgan Stanley forecast continued dollar weakness. Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls release will be closely watched for signs of labor market weakness. Remain vigilant! Key Events to Watch Upcoming Conferences Token-Related Discussions By Shaurya Malwa Derivatives Positioning Market Trends Bitcoin Statistics Technical Analysis Crypto-Related Equities ETF Flow Updates Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flow Updates Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether