Bitcoin's Prolonged Range: A Blessing or a Curse?

Hello, I'm Andy Baehr from the CoinDesk Indices team. The question on everyone's mind is: is bitcoin's current range-bound price a positive or negative development? For over a month, the cryptocurrency has been stuck within a 10% channel, with no clear catalyst to push it beyond its current boundaries of approximately $101,000 to $111,000. As of today, this range has persisted for 40 days. Is this a good or bad thing? The current macroeconomic climate supports range-trading, with our key bitcoin macro factor being expectations for future real interest rates. However, recent developments have created an unclear picture, making it difficult to predict a breakout. On one hand, the store-of-value thesis is supported by range-trading, as bitcoin's stability and relative independence from other risk assets are reinforced by its consistent behavior. On the other hand, traders are growing restless due to the low volatility, which limits opportunities. The CoinDesk 20 Index has also suffered, trailing behind bitcoin by about 5% over the past month. Historically, bitcoin has experienced similar range-bound periods, including in 2018, 2020, and 2023. Given the evolving ownership structure and increased market accessibility, it's unclear whether a prolonged range would be surprising.