Americas Crypto Daybook: Bitcoin Remains Steady Amid Trump's Comments on Iran

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless stated otherwise) The price of Bitcoin, currently at $85,572.91, is hovering just below $105,000 after experiencing a minor 1.4% drop in the past 24 hours, as the crypto market balances the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict with regulatory advancements in the US. Tensions in the Middle East have escalated following President Donald Trump's call for Iran's unconditional surrender, labeling the country's leader as an easy target. However, corporate purchases of Bitcoin are supporting demand, and the Senate's approval of US stablecoin legislation is viewed as a significant win for the industry. Trump's statement has increased the perceived likelihood of US involvement in the conflict to 62% on the prediction market Polymarket, up from around 50% the previous day. The odds of US military action against Iran before August are currently at 73%. According to analysts at crypto hedge fund QCP Capital, Despite the escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has yet to exhibit signs of widespread panic. The resilient price action of Bitcoin appears to be driven by continued institutional accumulation. This accumulation is partly fueled by corporate Bitcoin treasuries. Strategy has added over 10,000 BTC using funds from the STRD preferred stock offering, and The Blockchain Group has added 182 BTC this week. Additionally, Bitcoin rewards firm Fold has secured a $250 million facility to invest in Bitcoin, while Mercury Fintech plans to raise $800 million for a Bitcoin treasury. The market seems to have regained its footing, particularly after Bitcoin held above the key psychological threshold of $100k despite the initial shock, according to QCP's analysts. Crucially, Friday's modest 3% pullback was less severe compared to April last year, when Bitcoin fell over 8% amid similar Iran-Israel turmoil. The current Deribit Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) is around 40.86, down from over 62 in early April. The Senate's approval of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, the first significant piece of crypto legislation to clear the chamber, sends a clear message: US lawmakers are increasingly open to formalizing rules for the industry. Markets have interpreted this move as a structural win. Traders are watching today's interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve for any potential surprises. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, markets are nearly certain that rates will remain unchanged. This amplifies any potential fallout from the Iran-Israel conflict, which has now entered the crypto space. The Iranian crypto exchange Nobitex was hacked by a group believed to be linked to Israel just a day after the same group targeted the state-owned Bank Sepah. In the wider sphere, Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane, or US intervention would likely lead to a risk asset sell-off. It is wise to reserve judgment until the US open, where most price discovery has been occurring, said Jake O., an OTC trader at Wintermute. Stay alert. Key Events to Watch Token Events Conferences The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference, formerly known as State of Crypto, is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on September 10, allowing general counsels, compliance officers, and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Token Talk By Shaurya Malwa Derivatives Positioning Market Movements Bitcoin Statistics Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether