Americas Crypto Daybook: Trump's Stance Boosts Bitcoin, but $92K Risk Looms

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless stated otherwise) Risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, experienced relief after President Donald Trump indicated he might delay U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict by two weeks, thus reducing the likelihood of immediate military action. Bitcoin, currently at $86,817.46, has risen by 0.9% over the past day, with the broader CoinDesk 20 index seeing a 0.77% gain. Traditional markets saw oil prices decrease by 1.7% following a three-week surge, while European stock indexes rose and U.S. equity futures saw a slight increase. Trump's comments led to a decrease in the predicted odds of U.S. military intervention before the month's end on Polymarket, from around 70% to 40%, and from 90% to 62% when considering next month. According to AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth, the prospect of U.S. intervention, although diminished in the short term, will remain a significant issue for markets in the coming week due to the two-week hiatus. Despite the relative stability in the crypto market, analysts have identified potential risks. Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, suggests that subdued on-chain activity may be a sign of a more mature market characterized by large, infrequent transactions from institutional investors. However, a report by CryptoQuant warns of a possible drop in bitcoin's value to $92,000 or lower if demand does not rebound. This concern is fueled by a 60% decrease in ETF flows since April, a significant slowdown in whale buying, and the dumping of 800,000 BTC by short-term holders since late May. Key Events to Watch Upcoming Conferences The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference, scheduled for September 10 in Washington, will provide a platform for general counsels, compliance officers, and regulatory executives to engage with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and oversight. Limited spots are available, and attendees can use the code CDB10 for a 10% registration discount until July 17. Market Insights by Shaurya Malwa and Oliver Knight Derivatives Positioning Market Trends Bitcoin Statistics Technical Analysis Crypto Equities U.S. markets were closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth federal holiday. Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed at C$26.65, up 2.03%. Strategy (MSTR) closed at $369.03, down 1.64%, and rose to $373.10 in pre-market, a 1.1% increase. Coinbase Global (COIN) saw a 16.32% increase, closing at $295.29, and rose by 1.03% to $298.34. Circle (CRCL) closed at $199.59, up 33.82%, and increased by 10.53% to $220.60. MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at $14.49, down 1.23%, and rose by 1.73% to $14.74. Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed at $9.94, up 2.9%, and increased by 1.51% to $10.09. Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $11.9, up 0.08%, and rose by 0.42% to $11.95. CleanSpark (CLSK) closed at $9.18, up 3.15%, and increased by 1.42% to $9.31. CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) closed at $18.7, up 0.11%. Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $31.94, up 11.95%, and rose by 8.39% to $34.62. Exodus Movement (EXOD) closed at $30.14, up 0.43%, and increased by 3.65% to $31.24. ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether