Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Sees Uptrend in July as Options and Futures Indicate Apathy

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless stated otherwise) Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a 0.9% increase over the last 24 hours, rebounding from a slight dip following its record monthly close in June. Historical data suggests that this trend may continue into July. According to CoinGlass data, BTC has risen in all but three Julys over the past decade, with an average gain of approximately 7%. Furthermore, market maker Wintermute's analysis of the average daily bitcoin funding rate, a proxy for investor sentiment, against spot returns since 2022 reveals that July is the only month where strong gains are paired with subdued sentiment. Over the past three years, bitcoin has averaged a daily return of over 0.3% while funding rates have remained near zero during the month, as per a note shared by Wintermute with CoinDesk. However, it's essential to note that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and the current weakness of the dollar may pose a challenge, given its typical inverse relationship with bitcoin. The DXY index, which measures the US currency against its peers, is at a three-year low and approaching a death cross on technical charts, an indicator that has consistently marked bottoms for it since 2008. What does this mean for bitcoin? Thursday's US payrolls report is likely to provide some insights and indicate when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the central bank will "wait and learn" how tariffs impact inflation, keeping policy in limbo. The July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners, set by US President Donald Trump, is approaching, while the House is set to vote on his "Big Beautiful Bill," which could add up to $3.3 trillion to the already inflated US national debt bill after a narrow Senate passage. Additionally, corporate treasuries are increasing their investments. Publicly listed firms purchased approximately 131,000 BTC in the second quarter, an 18% increase that surpassed the 8% growth in US spot-ETF holdings. Remain vigilant! Key Events to Watch Token Events Conferences The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference, a one-day boutique event, will be held in Washington on September 10, bringing together general counsels, compliance officers, and regulatory executives with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited, and attendees can use the code CDB10 for a 10% discount on registration until July 17. Derivatives Positioning Market Trends Bitcoin Statistics Technical Analysis Crypto Equities ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Overnight Flows Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether