Perpetual futures, a staple in the crypto trading world, have officially arrived in the US, with Kalshi's contracts reaching $1 billion in trading volume within a week of launch. The product, which resembles standard futures contracts but lacks an expiration date, has become a core component of global crypto trading, with estimated annual volume of $90 trillion. Despite the enthusiasm, big banks are hesitant to dive in, citing concerns over liquidity, regulatory clarity, and infrastructure.
Instead, proprietary trading firms, market makers, and newer clearing firms are likely to be the first movers. The potential use cases for perpetual futures extend beyond speculation, with the possibility of helping traders manage weekend risk and providing a source of price discovery. However, the market still faces challenges, including thin weekend liquidity and regulatory disputes over the classification of perpetual contracts. As the market continues to evolve, industry insiders expect the demand for perpetual futures to drive investment, but for now, the largest banks are adopting a cautious approach, waiting for the rules, liquidity, and infrastructure to mature.