Good morning, Asia. Here's a summary of the latest market news: Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, a daily roundup of top stories and market analysis from the US. For in-depth coverage of US markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.
August saw a rare reversal in ETF flows, with Bitcoin spot funds experiencing $751 million in net outflows after reaching an all-time high of $124,000, while Ethereum ETFs absorbed $3.9 billion, according to market data. This divergence is notable, as it marks the first time Bitcoin ETFs have lost ground while Ethereum ETFs have seen strong inflows in the same month, suggesting institutional investors may be rebalancing their portfolios.
On-chain data highlights Bitcoin's vulnerability, with a recent report from Glassnode showing BTC falling below the cost basis of short-term holders, increasing the risk of further decline. A sustained move below the six-month cost basis near $107,000 could lead to accelerated losses toward the $93,000-$95,000 support zone. Prediction markets are also cautious, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% chance that BTC will revisit $100,000 before $130,000.
Meanwhile, Ethereum has benefited from steady inflows, with ETH ETFs logging positive net subscriptions in 10 of the last 12 months, and August's $3.9 billion haul contributing to a 25% gain over 30 days. As Bitcoin's ETF tide flows out, Ethereum's steady institutional bid may be emerging as a stabilizing force, potentially marking the start of a rotation story heading into year-end. Market movements include: BTC trading below $108,000, with forced liquidations clearing leverage and a rebound likely after the Fed's September 17 decision; ETH holding above $3,800 into September 5 with over 90% odds; and gold climbing toward record highs as traders price in Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar.