Crypto Market Outlook Ahead of Expiry and US Jobs Report

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless otherwise specified) The month of September has begun on a similar note to how August concluded, characterized by low trading volumes, reduced volatility, and significant market-moving news emanating from traditional finance sectors. Gold prices rose to $3,560 before retreating, while global government bond yields pulled back from their recent highs. The funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual contracts, which are payments designed to keep these contracts aligned with the spot price, have cooled down and are now around 6%, following a period of double-digit levels. Meanwhile, open interest continues to decline, with approximately 720,000 outstanding contracts denominated in BTC. Publicly listed Bitcoin treasury companies have seen their multiples to net asset value (mNAV) extend their decline. Strategy (MSTR) is currently trading at an mNAV of just over 1.55, and Metaplanet (3350) is at 1.71 after experiencing a 7% decline in share price in Japan. KindlyMD (NAKA) dropped an additional 9% on Wednesday, resulting in a 75% decline from its all-time high, and is now trading at an mNAV of 2.5. Over $4.5 billion in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit on Friday, coinciding with the release of the US nonfarm payrolls report. For Bitcoin, $3.28 billion in notional value is due to expire, with a max pain point at $112,000 and a put-call ratio of 1.38. "Open interest is skewed towards puts, with significant clustering around the $105,000 to $110,000 strikes, indicating that downside protection remains a primary theme," Deribit noted in a post on X. Ether options account for $1.27 billion in notional value, with a put-call ratio of 0.78 and a max pain level of $4,400. Deribit observes that "flows are more balanced, but calls are building above $4,500, signaling growing interest in upside optionality". Remain alert! Key Events to Watch Token Events Conferences The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference, a one-day boutique event in Washington on September 10, brings together general counsels, compliance officers, and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Limited spaces are available; use code CDB15 for a 15% registration discount. Token Talk By Oliver Knight Derivatives Positioning Market Movements Bitcoin Statistics Technical Analysis Crypto Equities Crypto Treasury Companies ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors Chart of the Day While You Were Sleeping In the Ether Saksham Diwan contributed to this newsletter.