Bitcoin Set to Enter Most Turbulent Month as 99% of Traders Bet on Fed Rate Cut

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times are in ET unless stated otherwise) The cryptocurrency market continues to surge, fueled by weaker-than-expected US labor data and a government shutdown that has led to a widespread belief that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has seen an additional 2.15% increase to $118,700, while the broader market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 index, rose by 2.33%. This uptrend occurred despite growing uncertainty in traditional markets. The catalyst for this surge was an unexpected decline in US private payrolls, with ADP data revealing a 32,000 job loss in September, contrary to forecasts of a 50,000 gain. As a result of the government shutdown, which has halted official labor data, traders are relying on this information to inform their decisions, leading to increased bets on a rate cut. According to data from Polymarket, traders believe there is a 91% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points later this month. Meanwhile, the CME's FedWatch tool indicates a 99% likelihood of such a rate cut. 'Markets seem to have responded with relative calm in the first 24 hours following the US government shutdown,' said Philipp Zentner, CEO and founder of LIFI Protocol, in an interview with CoinDesk. 'It's worth noting that during the last major shutdown in 2018-2019, which lasted 35 days, markets remained largely resilient, and we may see similar dynamics this time around.' This stability, combined with a dovish macroeconomic environment, is favorable for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Derivatives markets also reflect this shift, with open interest rising nearly 4% to $216 billion, according to CoinGlass data. Similarly, spot crypto ETFs have seen over $2.3 billion in net inflows since the beginning of the week, according to SoSoValue. However, some experts warn of structural risks. 'Strategies that rely on stock premiums to buy Bitcoin are reaching their limits,' said Justin Wang, co-founder of Zeus Network, in an interview with CoinDesk. 'Sustainable institutional Bitcoin adoption requires infrastructure that doesn't depend on market sentiment and stock premiums.' As the shutdown continues and economic signals become increasingly unclear, investors appear to be turning to alternative assets like gold and crypto. XYO co-founder Markus Levin noted that BTC's price structure is 'showing a classic Elliott Wave completion within a rising wedge, a pattern that often signals consolidation before a decisive move.' 'Institutional flows and derivatives activity will be crucial in determining whether this setup resolves with new highs or a deeper retracement. Either way, we're entering one of Bitcoin's historically most dynamic months, and market participants should be prepared for volatility,' he said. Stay alert. Key Events to Watch For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead' note. Token Events For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead'. Conferences For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead'. Token Talk By Oliver Knight Derivatives Positioning Market Movements Bitcoin Statistics Technical Analysis Crypto Equities Crypto Treasury Companies ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors While You Were Sleeping