Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin Eyes $113K-$115K as Alternatives Face Decline

Francisco Rodrigues reports (all times ET unless otherwise specified) that Bitcoin is currently hovering around $111,000, as the U.S.-China trade tensions have dampened investor risk appetite, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets. Although gold has climbed 0.8% to a record high of over $4,230 per ounce, Bitcoin's movement has been relatively subdued, with a 2% decline in the last 24 hours, reflecting a cautious yet stable market outlook according to analysts. The broader cryptocurrency market has experienced a more significant sell-off, with a 3.8% decline in the same period, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, following a fragile recovery from a violent $500 billion crash last week. Analysts suggest that the market is consolidating rather than panicking, with on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant noting that the recent decline was a controlled deleveraging rather than a panic sell-off, pointing to stable funding rates and relatively modest outflows. Growing options activity is currently shaping near-term market structure, with traders betting on the market calming down in the near future, evident through short straddles and diagonal calls clustered around $113-$115k near-dated, and adding downside protection through put calendar at $112,000. Bitcoin's price correlation with gold has reached 0.9, its highest in years, supporting the idea that investors increasingly treat the cryptocurrency as a hedge in times of geopolitical or economic stress. Analysts at QCP Capital believe that the setup for a renewed rally may already be forming, based on continued institutional treasury accumulation and spot exchange-traded inflows remaining steady. However, traders are watching for catalysts, with rate cut expectations offering support, and traders on Polymarket now pricing in 75 basis points in total cuts this year.