A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, it will be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record. However, this massive IPO, combined with those of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull over $240 billion out of the market, exceeding every venture-backed US IPO since 2000.
This could have a significant impact on crypto, which has traded with tightening correlation to Nasdaq and the S&P 500. As speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of the capital that would otherwise bid up crypto may be diverted.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is also a factor, as it may draw money away from crypto. Additionally, SpaceX holds 8,285 BTC worth around $600 million, making its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.