The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a period of significant fluctuations, with Bitcoin remaining stagnant at just under $77,000 on Wednesday in Asian hours, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially as Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $111 a barrel following reports of an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as indicated by a Wall Street Journal report stating that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for such an action. Iran has expressed its distress, with President Trump claiming on Truth Social that the country is in a 'State of Collapse.' Tehran, however, has signaled potential acceptance of an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
The only exception is dogecoin, which has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week, making it the sole top-10 token outside stablecoins to show gains over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital rotation into the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative stability suggests a shift in market structure. 'The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' Ebtikar stated in an email to CoinDesk. 'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits.' From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break in the upward range that has held since late March could lead to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB's decision on Thursday, will likely influence the market.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since recovered 0.4% in Asian hours. The price of Brent crude continues to fluctuate, staying elevated near $111, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as anticipated.