Research has shown that a small number of traders can significantly influence market prices, but new findings indicate that an even smaller group is capturing the majority of the profits. A recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs discovered that on Polymarket, less than 1% of wallets are taking home roughly half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for around 50% of the profits, which translates to approximately $8 million out of $16 million in total profits. This data reinforces previous academic research that found about 3% of Polymarket traders drive most price discovery, suggesting that a small minority has a disproportionate impact on the market.
The report highlights that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply any wrongdoing, but rather that some traders have a significant advantage due to their sophistication, capital, or speed of action. However, the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group of traders operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants. The report also flags signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Solidus Labs' study relies on verifiable on-chain data, but it is essential to consider the firm's potential bias, as they sell surveillance platforms for market monitoring.