According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to launch soon.
Hayes believes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit directly from platform activity. This sets Hyperliquid apart from competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi, which do not currently offer a similar token-based incentive structure. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust technology infrastructure, Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly become a leading prediction market platform. The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of approximately $38 billion, compared to the implied valuation of a potential Polymarket token, which is around $14 billion.
Geographical constraints also play a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Kalshi's model being built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives. In contrast, Hyperliquid's user base is skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already well-established, and it faces no equivalent regulatory constraints.