Staying Afloat: Crypto Market Outlook for the Americas

By Omkar Godbole (Times are in ET unless stated otherwise) Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has managed to stay above $90,000, confirming oversold signals indicated by technical indicators like the RSI. The CoinDesk 20 Index and major altcoins such as SOL, ETH, BNB, and TRX are holding steady, with minimal fluctuations, while XRP experienced a 2% decline. CRO and HASH are the top performers of the day, both seeing a 4% increase. Analysts are discussing the potential for a price rebound, driven by a mix of extreme caution and oversold alerts, as highlighted by the Fear and Greed Index's "extreme fear" reading and signs of whale bargain hunting. In the Treasury options market, investor activity suggests a bet on a dovish Fed repricing, which would be beneficial for risk assets. The key question is whether Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 by the end of the year. According to activity on Derive, a decentralized options-trading platform, the odds are around 30%. However, there's also a 50% chance that BTC will end the year below $90,000. Ether options currently indicate a 50% chance of ETH falling below $2,900 by the end of the year, with only a 15% probability of exceeding $4,000. These probabilities reflect ongoing concerns about macro headwinds and elevated volatility limiting any significant near-term upside, according to Sean Dawson, Derive's head of research. Regarding volatility, prepare for increased fluctuations: Volmex's bitcoin implied volatility index is still rising and has reached its highest level since the October 8 crash. Meanwhile, the VIX index on Wall Street has surpassed 22%, a level it has only exceeded once since May, signaling renewed uncertainty in traditional markets. The increase is natural as traders await Nvidia's quarterly earnings report later today, a highly anticipated event given the company's crucial role in the AI boom. Adding to the anticipation are the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes, set for release soon, and tomorrow's delayed September payrolls report, both of which are poised to influence market direction. In other news, Hyperliquid has introduced an upgrade that enables permissionless market deployment with significantly reduced fees. The upgrade aims to broaden asset offerings and boost liquidity on the exchange. In traditional markets, business-development firm Blue Owl Capital has halted redemptions for its private credit fund and merged it with a larger, publicly traded product, fueling concerns over the private credit industry. The dollar index has topped 99.00, trading higher for the third consecutive day. Remain vigilant! Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. What to Watch For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead". Token Events For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead". Conferences For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead". Market Movements Bitcoin Stats Technical Analysis Crypto Equities Crypto Treasury Companies ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Spot ETH ETFs Source: Farside Investors While You Were Sleeping