The alleged insider trading incident involving a Green Beret, who made a $400,000 bet on a raid in Venezuela, may be just the tip of the iceberg. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research organization, has analyzed over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume on Polymarket from January 2021 to mid-March 2026. The findings indicate that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have an unusually high success rate, exceeding 50% in some cases, compared to the typical 14% success rate for such bets in other markets.
This discrepancy suggests that some traders may have access to confidential information, creating an uneven playing field. The research also reveals that a small group of traders, approximately 3%, drives most price discovery on Polymarket, while fewer than 1% of wallets capture about half of all gains. The study examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, resulting in profits of about $1.8 million for eight wallets.
The pattern of well-timed bets in military and defense markets raises concerns about insider trading and the need for stricter regulations, such as identity verification, conditional payouts, and restrictions on certain markets. The report concludes by calling for an evidence-based discussion on whether the public should be allowed to bet on these outcomes at all.