The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a period of mixed movements, with Bitcoin holding steady at just under $77,000 on Wednesday during Asian trading hours, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, given that Brent crude oil has surpassed $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has described its current situation as a 'State of Collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social, while Tehran has indicated it might accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant declines, with losses ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week.
In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token outside of stablecoins to show gains over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, attributes Bitcoin's relative calm to a shift in market structure, stating that the supply overhang has been depleted and sellers who were spooked by macroeconomic shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market. According to Ebtikar, Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly thought, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside.
On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts to advance since February. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil has fluctuated between gains and losses but remains elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macroeconomic shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.