Research indicates that a small number of traders are dominating prediction markets, with an even smaller group reaping most of the financial rewards. A recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs reveals extreme profit concentration on Polymarket, where less than 1% of wallets capture roughly half of all gains in key markets.
Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly half of the profits, amounting to around $8 million out of $16 million. This data supports previous findings that a small minority drives price discovery, with around 3% of Polymarket traders responsible for most price movements.
The report highlights that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather suggests a structural divide between a small group of sophisticated traders and the broader base of participants. It also notes signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Solidus Labs' study relies on on-chain data, but the firm's sales pitch for its surveillance platform should be considered when interpreting the findings.