According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing upside potential rather than just offering cheaper trading. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to introduce a new paradigm.
Hayes argues that the true differentiator lies in Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to profit from platform activity, a feature currently lacking in Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, with HYPE token holders directly benefiting from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing rather than token incentives, limiting users' access to platform upside.
The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having an Asia-skewed user base with no equivalent constraints. The contrast between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi highlights the structural differences in their approaches to prediction markets, with Hyperliquid's token-based model potentially offering a unique value proposition.