Veteran trader Peter Brandt forecasts that bitcoin will experience a significant surge to $250,000 by 2029. However, this increase is contingent upon the market completing a lengthy bottoming process, which could potentially persist until September 2026.
This projection aligns with the historical pattern of bitcoin's four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has been a reliable indicator for traders. Typically, bitcoin's bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, followed by a year-long bear market.
Subsequently, new uptrends usually commence 12 to 18 months prior to the next halving. If this cycle holds, the bear market that began in October 2025 should reach its bottom around October 2026, with a new uptrend potentially taking hold and reaching $250,000 in late 2029.
Brandt notes that the market may experience a rally, followed by a sideways or downward trend, before ultimately surging to $250,000. With nearly five decades of experience in commodities trading, Brandt's perspective diverges from the consensus among crypto analysts, who believe that the downtrend that began in October has ended and a new uptrend has commenced. Since early February, bitcoin has rallied over 25% to $80,300.
Brandt emphasizes that his forecast is dependent on the market adhering to its historical rhythm and is prepared to reassess his projections if the price action deviates from this pattern.