A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated in June, and it may have significant implications for the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and potentially raising over $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, surpassing the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the stock market.
According to Alex Good, founder of Post Fiat, this could be a turning point for equities, drawing parallels to the Solana $300 moment. The MSCI has modeled a scenario where megacap IPOs in 2026 could trigger index-driven flows, sector-rotation effects, and a compression of liquidity in assets outside of these new listings. As crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, are closely tied to the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, they may be affected by the impending IPOs. Historical data shows that bitcoin and other cryptos have traded with tightening correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles.
When speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, it may also reduce the capital available to bid up higher-beta assets like crypto. A notable example is Coinbase's IPO in April 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown within six weeks. This raises concerns that institutional milestones may mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases these milestones is often the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. Two key features of the SpaceX listing are particularly relevant to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which could divert $22 billion away from crypto and other assets, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC, worth roughly $600 million, in Coinbase Prime custody.
As the roadshow window approaches in May and June, it will be crucial to monitor whether crypto holds up or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow period could suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows, but the lesson from Coinbase's IPO in 2021 serves as a warning that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a downturn.