According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes notes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes believes HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market.
The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion. In contrast to Polymarket and Kalshi, Hyperliquid faces no geographical constraints, with its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established.
The contrast is most evident with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that builds its model around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives, likely ruling out the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to. This makes it the most direct test of his thesis, as users can trade event outcomes on Kalshi but have no path to the upside of the platform itself.