Veteran trader Peter Brandt anticipates bitcoin will experience a significant rally to $250,000 in 2029, but only after the market completes a lengthy bottoming process that could persist until September 2026. This forecast aligns with bitcoin's historical four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has consistently influenced traders' projections. Typically, bitcoin's bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, followed by a year-long bear market. New uptrends usually commence 12 to 18 months prior to the next halving.
If this cycle holds, the bear market that began in October 2025 should reach its bottom around October 2026, and a new uptrend could emerge, potentially reaching $250,000 in late 2029, roughly 18 months after the April 2028 halving. Brandt stated, 'I am not predicting a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could experience a rally and then move sideways or downward.
The worst-case scenario would be a move back into the lower green zone, which would be into the 50s, possibly high 40s. Then, it could surge to $250,000 and reach a high in late 2029.' Peter Brandt, a seasoned commodities trader with nearly five decades of experience, initiated his career in the 1970s in the futures markets, trading traditional assets such as agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies before the emergence of modern electronic trading or digital assets. Brandt's perspective differs from the consensus among crypto analysts, who argue that the downtrend that began with the October peak near $126,000 ended in early February around $60,000, and that the subsequent rally marks the beginning of a new uptrend.
Bitcoin has surged over 25% to $80,300 since early February, according to CoinDesk data. It is essential to note that Brandt's forecast of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downtrend that would push prices below the February low. As he has mentioned, prices could instead move in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before eventually forming a bottom.
Brandt emphasized that his projection relies entirely on the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm. If price action deviates, he is prepared to reassess rather than defend a broken thesis. 'As long as the market follows the script, I will maintain my projections.
If the price discovery moves off script, I will be forced to revise my thinking. I will not be dogmatic about it as some are,' he said.