According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's entry into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee model for event trading under the HIP-4 proposal, which Hayes believes will be a game-changer. The real differentiator, however, is the HYPE token, which allows users to benefit from platform activity. Hayes notes that users who own the HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4, unlike users of Polymarket and Kalshi.
With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is well-positioned to become a dominant player in the prediction market. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives.
The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints and its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established.