The alleged insider trading incident involving a Green Beret's $400,000 bet on a Venezuelan raid may be just the tip of the iceberg. A recent analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research group, has uncovered evidence of unusually high win rates in low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes on Polymarket. The study examined over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume from January 2021 to mid-March 2026 and found that success rates for these bets have topped 50% in some cases, far exceeding the typical 14% success rate for such 'longshot' bets in political markets. The researchers suggest that markets tied to specific government policies, such as military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading or specialized knowledge.
This can create conditions in which a small group of informed traders can consistently outperform others, not just by reacting faster, but by knowing more. The findings add to a growing body of research indicating that a small percentage of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket, with fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. The report highlights the need for increased transparency and regulation, including identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, and restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups.
Ultimately, the researchers call for an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.