A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's anticipated $75 billion IPO set to take place in June, which may divert investor interest away from the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation.
This listing, along with those of OpenAI and Anthropic, could collectively raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, surpassing the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The significant capital pull may affect the crypto market, as it shares the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have shown a tightening correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, suggesting that when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also impact the crypto market. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from the crypto market. Furthermore, SpaceX's holding of 8,285 BTC, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of the SpaceX IPO on the crypto market will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June.