The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a period of significant movement, with Bitcoin being the exception as it remains stagnant. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, the largest cryptocurrency hovered just below $77,000, experiencing a minimal 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability persisted despite Brent crude oil surpassing $111 per barrel, attributed to a Wall Street Journal report stating that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has expressed that the country is in a state of collapse, according to Trump's claims on Truth Social.
However, Tehran has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. The only exception among the top-10 tokens, excluding stablecoins, was dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted that Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. "The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago," he stated in an email to CoinDesk. Ebtikar added that "Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits." From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as the critical level where the upward range that has held since late March breaks, potentially leading to further downside if breached.
A reversal toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures recovered 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have been volatile, fluctuating between gains and losses but remaining elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin trades on volatility rather than headlines until something forces a fresh leg of selling. However, if the read is incorrect, $75,000 may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as anticipated.