According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4, which introduces event trading, is set to launch with a zero-fee-to-open model.
Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes stated that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, and that users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In comparison, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and premarket perpetual contracts tied to the potential $POLY token are trading around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of roughly $14 billion. HYPE, on the other hand, has an FDV of about $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data.
The argument also highlights geographical differences, with Polymarket facing regulatory constraints in Asia, while Hyperliquid has a strong user base in the region and faces no equivalent constraints. In contrast, Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives, which likely rules out the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to.