According to Peter Brandt, a seasoned trader, bitcoin is poised to experience a significant surge to $250,000 by 2029. However, this growth is contingent upon the market completing a lengthy bottoming process that may persist until September 2026. This projection aligns with bitcoin's historical four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has consistently influenced traders' predictions.
Typically, bitcoin's bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, followed by a year-long bear market. Subsequent uptrends usually commence 12 to 18 months prior to the next halving. This pattern was evident in the most recent cycle, with bitcoin reaching its peak in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving.
If this cycle holds, the bear market that began then should bottom out around October 2026, and a new uptrend should emerge, potentially leading to a peak of $250,000 in late 2029. Brandt notes, 'I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could get a rally and then chop sideways to down.
Worst case would be a move back into the lower green banana peel which would be into the 50s, maybe high 40s. Then blast off for $250k and a high in late 2029.' With a career spanning nearly five decades, Peter Brandt is a veteran commodities trader who has been active in the futures markets since the 1970s. His trading experience encompasses traditional assets such as agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies, preceding the emergence of modern electronic trading and digital assets. Brandt's outlook diverges from the consensus among crypto analysts, who argue that the downtrend that commenced with the October peak near $126,000 ended in early February around $60,000, and that the subsequent rally marks the beginning of a new uptrend.
Since early February, bitcoin has experienced a significant rally of over 25% to $80,300, according to CoinDesk data. It is essential to note that Brandt's forecast of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downtrend that would push prices below the February low.
Instead, prices could move in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before eventually forming a bottom. Brandt emphasized that his projection is contingent upon the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm. If price action deviates, he is prepared to reassess rather than defend a broken thesis. As he stated, 'As long as the market follows the script I will stay with my projections.
If at some point the price discovery moves off script I will be forced to revise all my thinking. I will NOT be dogmatic about it as some are.'