The general consensus among retail investors is that bitcoin's current price of $80,235.26 will surge above $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning the year-to-date return from negative to positive. However, it remains to be seen whether the market will follow this trend. Analytics firm Santiment analyzed thousands of social media posts across various platforms and found that the majority of predictions are in favor of bitcoin's price exceeding $90,000. Mentions of lower price ranges, between $50,000 and $59,000, are being dismissed as fear-mongering.
The crowd's expectations are likely influenced by the recent inflows into exchange-traded funds and bitcoin's resilience in the face of global conflicts, oil price surges, and DeFi hacks. According to Santiment, this widespread bullishness could be a reason to exercise caution, as overly optimistic social sentiment can often indicate a potential downturn.
The firm suggests that price predictions can be a reliable way to gauge the opposite direction of the market. This sentiment is echoed by traditional market contrarian traders, who use sentiment gauges such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their decisions. Interestingly, bitcoin's recovery rally has already experienced a setback, with prices dropping to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving the question of whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a broader reversal.