Research has shown that a small group of traders may be influencing prediction markets, but an even smaller group is accumulating most of the profits. According to a report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, profit distribution on Polymarket is highly skewed, with less than 1% of wallets accounting for roughly half of all gains in major markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets captured around 50% of gains, amounting to approximately $8 million out of $16 million in profits.
This data reinforces previous findings that a small minority of traders drives price movements, with a London Business School and Yale paper suggesting that around 3% of Polymarket traders are responsible for most price discovery. The report highlights that this concentration of profits does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders have an advantage due to their sophistication, capital, or speed in acting on information.
However, the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group of traders operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants. The report also notes signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Solidus Labs' study relies on verifiable on-chain data, but the firm's sales pitch for its surveillance platform, HALO, should be considered when interpreting the findings.