The US-driven surge in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had consistently shown a positive reading from April 8 to April 22, during which time Bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has since declined.
As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or a lack of buying interest. On-chain data paints a similar picture, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000. This realized loss occurs when holders sell coins below their original purchase price.
The recent spike near $6 billion at $78,000 implies that sellers were buyers at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, and are now using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than re-entering the market. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the combination of these datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchasing activity through Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity.
With Bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric will continue to decline as the supply of underwater coins is worked through. The reading has already decreased from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating a potential thinning of the seller cohort.