According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market venue. The HYPE token has a fully-diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion.
Hayes' argument also highlights the geographical advantages of Hyperliquid, with a user base skewed towards Asia and no equivalent regulatory constraints. In contrast, Polymarket is rebuilding its US business with compliance at its center, while Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
The structural split between the three platforms is evident, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.